Red Bull New York
St. Louis CITY SC
Red Bull New York – St. Louis CITY SC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.38 – 1.46
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards St. Louis CITY SC away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.38 goals for Red Bull New York and 1.46 for St. Louis CITY SC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 50 %. Over their last five matches, Red Bull New York took 7 points and St. Louis CITY SC 11 points. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Red Bull New York | 3.45 | 27 % | +15.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.05 | 23 % | +11.7 % |
| 2St. Louis CITY SC | 1.86 | 50 % | -27.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Red Bull New York
- Last 5 matches
- At home
St. Louis CITY SC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Red Bull New York – St. Louis CITY SC?
Our model gives 2 · St. Louis CITY SC a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Red Bull New York win 33 %, draw 28 %, St. Louis CITY SC win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Red Bull New York – St. Louis CITY SC?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.