Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC – San Jose Earthquakes
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.77 – 1.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Minnesota United FC at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.77 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.33 for San Jose Earthquakes. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 54 %. Over their last five matches, Minnesota United FC took 11 points and San Jose Earthquakes 6 points. In recent meetings: 5 wins for Minnesota United FC, 0 draws, 0 wins for San Jose Earthquakes. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Minnesota United FC | 1.71 | 54 % | -19.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +2.9 % |
| 2San Jose Earthquakes | 3.95 | 23 % | +10.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Minnesota United FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
San Jose Earthquakes
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 5 wins
- Minnesota United FC
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- San Jose Earthquakes
- San Jose Earthquakes1-5Minnesota United FC
- Minnesota United FC4-1San Jose Earthquakes
- San Jose Earthquakes0-1Minnesota United FC
- San Jose Earthquakes1-2Minnesota United FC
- Minnesota United FC2-0
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Minnesota United FC – San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model gives 1 · Minnesota United FC a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Minnesota United FC win 47 %, draw 25 %, San Jose Earthquakes win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Minnesota United FC – San Jose Earthquakes?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.