Austin FC
Portland Timbers
Austin FC – Portland Timbers
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 1.73
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Portland Timbers away from home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.44 goals for Austin FC and 1.73 for Portland Timbers. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 56 %. Over their last five matches, Austin FC took 3 points and Portland Timbers 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Austin FC, 1 draw, 2 wins for Portland Timbers. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Austin FC | 4.10 | 22 % | +41.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 21 % | +6.8 % |
| 2Portland Timbers | 1.64 | 56 % | -33.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Austin FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Portland Timbers
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Austin FC
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Portland Timbers
- Portland Timbers1-2Austin FC
- Austin FC0-0Portland Timbers
- Portland Timbers1-0Austin FC
- Portland Timbers0-1Austin FC
- Austin FC0-2Portland Timbers
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Austin FC – Portland Timbers?
Our model gives 2 · Portland Timbers a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Austin FC win 35 %, draw 25 %, Portland Timbers win 41 %.
What is the most likely score for Austin FC – Portland Timbers?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.