Chicago Fire FC
Columbus Crew
Chicago Fire FC – Columbus Crew
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.78 – 1.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Chicago Fire FC at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.78 goals for Chicago Fire FC and 1.41 for Columbus Crew. Bookmakers say the same thing: 47 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Chicago Fire FC took 7 points and Columbus Crew 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Chicago Fire FC, 1 draw, 3 wins for Columbus Crew. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chicago Fire FC | 1.98 | 47 % | -8.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.92 | 24 % | +1.3 % |
| 2Columbus Crew | 3.20 | 29 % | -10.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Chicago Fire FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Columbus Crew
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Chicago Fire FC
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Columbus Crew
- Columbus Crew0-0Chicago Fire FC
- Chicago Fire FC2-0Columbus Crew
- Columbus Crew4-2Chicago Fire FC
- Chicago Fire FC1-3Columbus Crew
- Columbus Crew2-1Chicago Fire FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chicago Fire FC – Columbus Crew?
Our model gives 1 · Chicago Fire FC a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Chicago Fire FC win 46 %, draw 26 %, Columbus Crew win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Chicago Fire FC – Columbus Crew?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.