Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC – Toronto FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.58 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlanta United FC at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.58 goals for Atlanta United FC and 1.37 for Toronto FC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlanta United FC took 3 points and Toronto FC 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Atlanta United FC, 2 draws, 1 win for Toronto FC. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlanta United FC | 2.15 | 43 % | -7.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.92 | 24 % | +4.8 % |
| 2Toronto FC | 2.81 | 33 % | -15.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atlanta United FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Toronto FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Atlanta United FC
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Toronto FC
- Toronto FC1-2Atlanta United FC
- Atlanta United FC0-0Toronto FC
- Toronto FC1-1Atlanta United FC
- Atlanta United FC2-1Toronto FC
- Toronto FC2-0Atlanta United FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlanta United FC – Toronto FC?
Our model gives 1 · Atlanta United FC a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlanta United FC win 43 %, draw 27 %, Toronto FC win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlanta United FC – Toronto FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.