FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union
FC Cincinnati – Philadelphia Union
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.61 – 1.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68 %
- Both teams to score
- 68 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Philadelphia Union away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.61 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.89 for Philadelphia Union. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Cincinnati took 7 points and Philadelphia Union 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for FC Cincinnati, 0 draws, 3 wins for Philadelphia Union. Over 2.5 goals: 68 %. Both teams to score: 68 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Cincinnati | 2.40 | 39 % | -18.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -3.4 % |
| 2Philadelphia Union | 2.48 | 38 % | +3.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Cincinnati
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Philadelphia Union
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- FC Cincinnati
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Philadelphia Union
- Philadelphia Union5-0FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati0-1Philadelphia Union
- Philadelphia Union4-1FC Cincinnati
- Philadelphia Union1-2FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati4-3Philadelphia Union
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Cincinnati – Philadelphia Union?
Our model gives 2 · Philadelphia Union a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Cincinnati win 34 %, draw 24 %, Philadelphia Union win 42 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Cincinnati – Philadelphia Union?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.