Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 27, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.03 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Nashville SC at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.03 goals for Nashville SC and 1.32 for Philadelphia Union. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Nashville SC took 13 points and Philadelphia Union 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Nashville SC, 1 draw, 2 wins for Philadelphia Union. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nashville SC | 1.86 | 50 % | -2.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 24 % | -5.4 % |
| 2Philadelphia Union | 3.55 | 26 % | -19.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Nashville SC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Philadelphia Union
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Nashville SC
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Philadelphia Union
- Philadelphia Union0-0Nashville SC
- Nashville SC1-0Philadelphia Union
- Philadelphia Union1-3Nashville SC
- Philadelphia Union3-0Nashville SC
- Nashville SC1-2Philadelphia Union
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union?
Our model gives 1 · Nashville SC a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Nashville SC win 52 %, draw 25 %, Philadelphia Union win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.