New England Revolution
Red Bull New York
New England Revolution – Red Bull New York
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 27, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.67 – 1.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards New England Revolution at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.67 goals for New England Revolution and 1.25 for Red Bull New York. Bookmakers say the same thing: 49 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, New England Revolution took 9 points and Red Bull New York 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for New England Revolution, 0 draws, 3 wins for Red Bull New York. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1New England Revolution | 1.91 | 49 % | -12.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | +6.7 % |
| 2Red Bull New York | 3.30 | 28 % | -8.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
New England Revolution
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Red Bull New York
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- New England Revolution
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Red Bull New York
- Red Bull New York1-0New England Revolution
- Red Bull New York5-3New England Revolution
- New England Revolution2-1Red Bull New York
- New England Revolution1-0Red Bull New York
- Red Bull New York4-2
Frequently asked questions
Who will win New England Revolution – Red Bull New York?
Our model gives 1 · New England Revolution a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: New England Revolution win 46 %, draw 27 %, Red Bull New York win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for New England Revolution – Red Bull New York?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.