Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union – New England Revolution
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 62 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.33 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Philadelphia Union at home (62 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.33 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.12 for New England Revolution. Bookmakers say the same thing: 61 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Philadelphia Union took 13 points and New England Revolution 9 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Philadelphia Union, 0 draws, 1 win for New England Revolution. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Philadelphia Union | 1.52 | 61 % | -5.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | -2.5 % |
| 2New England Revolution | 5.00 | 19 % | -18.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Philadelphia Union
- Last 5 matches
- At home
New England Revolution
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Philadelphia Union
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- New England Revolution
- New England Revolution2-1Philadelphia Union
- Philadelphia Union1-0New England Revolution
- New England Revolution0-2Philadelphia Union
- Philadelphia Union5-1New England Revolution
- New England Revolution0-3
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Philadelphia Union – New England Revolution?
Our model gives 1 · Philadelphia Union a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Philadelphia Union win 62 %, draw 22 %, New England Revolution win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for Philadelphia Union – New England Revolution?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.