Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire FC
Atlanta United FC – Chicago Fire FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Chicago Fire FC away from home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.28 goals for Atlanta United FC and 1.62 for Chicago Fire FC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlanta United FC took 7 points and Chicago Fire FC 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Atlanta United FC, 2 draws, 2 wins for Chicago Fire FC. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlanta United FC | 2.55 | 36 % | -18.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | +1.7 % |
| 2Chicago Fire FC | 2.40 | 39 % | -2.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atlanta United FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Chicago Fire FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Atlanta United FC
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Chicago Fire FC
- Chicago Fire FC1-0Atlanta United FC
- Atlanta United FC2-2Chicago Fire FC
- Chicago Fire FC2-1Atlanta United FC
- Chicago Fire FC0-0Atlanta United FC
- Atlanta United FC3-0Chicago Fire FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlanta United FC – Chicago Fire FC?
Our model gives 2 · Chicago Fire FC a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlanta United FC win 32 %, draw 27 %, Chicago Fire FC win 41 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlanta United FC – Chicago Fire FC?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.