Melbourne Victory
Melbourne City FC
Melbourne Victory – Melbourne City FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.58 – 1.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Melbourne Victory at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.58 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.24 for Melbourne City FC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 37 %. Over their last five matches, Melbourne Victory took 5 points and Melbourne City FC 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Melbourne Victory, 1 draw, 2 wins for Melbourne City FC. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Melbourne Victory | 2.50 | 37 % | +11.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -11.6 % |
| 2Melbourne City FC | 2.60 | 36 % | -22.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Melbourne Victory
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Melbourne City FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Melbourne Victory
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Melbourne City FC
- Melbourne City FC1-3Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne City FC0-1Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory0-2Melbourne City FC
- Melbourne City FC1-0Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory2-2Melbourne City FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Melbourne Victory – Melbourne City FC?
Our model gives 1 · Melbourne Victory a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Melbourne Victory win 45 %, draw 26 %, Melbourne City FC win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Melbourne Victory – Melbourne City FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.