Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar – Perth Glory
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 21, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.66 – 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Brisbane Roar at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.66 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.22 for Perth Glory. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Brisbane Roar took 2 points and Perth Glory 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Brisbane Roar, 1 draw, 2 wins for Perth Glory. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brisbane Roar | 2.15 | 44 % | -0.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -5.3 % |
| 2Perth Glory | 3.30 | 29 % | -14.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Brisbane Roar
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Perth Glory
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Brisbane Roar
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Perth Glory
- Perth Glory2-1Brisbane Roar
- Brisbane Roar1-1Perth Glory
- Perth Glory1-2Brisbane Roar
- Perth Glory1-3Brisbane Roar
- Brisbane Roar0-1Perth Glory
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Brisbane Roar – Perth Glory?
Our model gives 1 · Brisbane Roar a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Brisbane Roar win 47 %, draw 27 %, Perth Glory win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Brisbane Roar – Perth Glory?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.