AS Monaco
SC Freiburg
AS Monaco – SC Freiburg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 2-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.56 – 1.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AS Monaco at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.56 goals for AS Monaco and 1.57 for SC Freiburg. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AS Monaco took 8 points and SC Freiburg 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AS Monaco | 2.25 | 43 % | -12.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 27 % | -10.8 % |
| 2SC Freiburg | 3.10 | 31 % | +12.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AS Monaco
- Last 5 matches
- At home
SC Freiburg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AS Monaco – SC Freiburg?
Our model gives 1 · AS Monaco a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AS Monaco win 39 %, draw 25 %, SC Freiburg win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for AS Monaco – SC Freiburg?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.