Ajax Amsterdam
Atalanta
Ajax Amsterdam – Atalanta
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.92 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ajax Amsterdam at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.92 goals for Ajax Amsterdam and 1.27 for Atalanta. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, Ajax Amsterdam took 8 points and Atalanta 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Ajax Amsterdam, 1 draw, 1 win for Atalanta. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax Amsterdam | 2.15 | 44 % | +7.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 25 % | -9.6 % |
| 2Atalanta | 3.05 | 31 % | -18.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ajax Amsterdam
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atalanta
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Ajax Amsterdam
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Atalanta
- Ajax Amsterdam0-1Atalanta
- Atalanta2-2Ajax Amsterdam
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ajax Amsterdam – Atalanta?
Our model gives 1 · Ajax Amsterdam a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ajax Amsterdam win 50 %, draw 23 %, Atalanta win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Ajax Amsterdam – Atalanta?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.