Pafos
Riga FC
Pafos – Riga FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 67 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.14 – 0.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Pafos at home (67 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.14 goals for Pafos and 0.89 for Riga FC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Pafos took 5 points and Riga FC 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pafos | 1.60 | 60 % | +6.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 23 % | -21.3 % |
| 2Riga FC | 5.50 | 17 % | -19.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Pafos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Riga FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Pafos – Riga FC?
Our model gives 1 · Pafos a 67 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Pafos win 67 %, draw 19 %, Riga FC win 15 %.
What is the most likely score for Pafos – Riga FC?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.