Getafe
FC Lugano
Getafe – FC Lugano
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.97 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Getafe at home (63 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 1.97 goals for Getafe and 0.86 for FC Lugano. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 51 %. Over their last five matches, Getafe took 5 points and FC Lugano 11 points. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Getafe | 1.86 | 51 % | +16.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -30.4 % |
| 2FC Lugano | 4.30 | 22 % | -24.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Getafe
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Lugano
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Getafe – FC Lugano?
Our model gives 1 · Getafe a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Getafe win 63 %, draw 20 %, FC Lugano win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Getafe – FC Lugano?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.