FC Nordsjælland
CSKA Sofia
FC Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 80 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.59 – 0.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Nordsjælland at home (80 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.59 goals for FC Nordsjælland and 0.66 for CSKA Sofia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 66 %. Over their last five matches, FC Nordsjælland took 6 points and CSKA Sofia 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Nordsjælland | 1.43 | 66 % | +13.7 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 19 % | -33.9 % |
| 2CSKA Sofia | 6.50 | 15 % | -52.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Nordsjælland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
CSKA Sofia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia?
Our model gives 1 · FC Nordsjælland a 80 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Nordsjælland win 80 %, draw 13 %, CSKA Sofia win 7 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.