Wellington Phoenix FC
Melbourne Victory
Wellington Phoenix FC – Melbourne Victory
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.10 – 2.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Melbourne Victory away from home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.10 goals for Wellington Phoenix FC and 2.05 for Melbourne Victory. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, Wellington Phoenix FC took 9 points and Melbourne Victory 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Wellington Phoenix FC, 0 draws, 4 wins for Melbourne Victory. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wellington Phoenix FC | 3.05 | 31 % | -33.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -11.1 % |
| 2Melbourne Victory | 2.10 | 44 % | +13.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Wellington Phoenix FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Melbourne Victory
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Wellington Phoenix FC
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory0-1Wellington Phoenix FC
- Wellington Phoenix FC2-3Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory5-1Wellington Phoenix FC
- Wellington Phoenix FC2-3Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory1-0
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Wellington Phoenix FC – Melbourne Victory?
Our model gives 2 · Melbourne Victory a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Wellington Phoenix FC win 22 %, draw 24 %, Melbourne Victory win 54 %.
What is the most likely score for Wellington Phoenix FC – Melbourne Victory?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.