San Jose Earthquakes
Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes – Nashville SC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Nashville SC away from home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.27 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.80 for Nashville SC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 49 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, San Jose Earthquakes took 9 points and Nashville SC 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for San Jose Earthquakes, 2 draws, 0 wins for Nashville SC. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Jose Earthquakes | 3.50 | 26 % | -11.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -9.1 % |
| 2Nashville SC | 1.90 | 49 % | -4.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
San Jose Earthquakes
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Nashville SC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- San Jose Earthquakes
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Nashville SC
- Nashville SC1-1San Jose Earthquakes
- San Jose Earthquakes1-1Nashville SC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes – Nashville SC?
Our model gives 2 · Nashville SC a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: San Jose Earthquakes win 25 %, draw 24 %, Nashville SC win 50 %.
What is the most likely score for San Jose Earthquakes – Nashville SC?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.