LA Galaxy
San Diego FC
LA Galaxy – San Diego FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.78 – 1.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 65 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards LA Galaxy at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.78 goals for LA Galaxy and 1.51 for San Diego FC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, LA Galaxy took 10 points and San Diego FC 3 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for LA Galaxy, 0 draws, 3 wins for San Diego FC. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1LA Galaxy | 2.05 | 45 % | -16.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | +3.9 % |
| 2San Diego FC | 2.95 | 31 % | -4.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
LA Galaxy
- Last 5 matches
- At home
San Diego FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- LA Galaxy
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- San Diego FC
- San Diego FC3-1LA Galaxy
- San Diego FC2-1LA Galaxy
- LA Galaxy0-2San Diego FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win LA Galaxy – San Diego FC?
Our model gives 1 · LA Galaxy a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: LA Galaxy win 41 %, draw 27 %, San Diego FC win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for LA Galaxy – San Diego FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.