Red Bull New York
Toronto FC
Red Bull New York – Toronto FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.66 – 1.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Red Bull New York at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.66 goals for Red Bull New York and 1.24 for Toronto FC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Red Bull New York took 9 points and Toronto FC 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Red Bull New York, 2 draws, 0 wins for Toronto FC. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Red Bull New York | 2.00 | 46 % | -4.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | +2.0 % |
| 2Toronto FC | 3.10 | 30 % | -19.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Red Bull New York
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Toronto FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Red Bull New York
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Toronto FC
- Toronto FC1-1Red Bull New York
- Toronto FC1-1Red Bull New York
- Red Bull New York2-1Toronto FC
- Toronto FC1-4Red Bull New York
- Red Bull New York3-0Toronto FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Red Bull New York – Toronto FC?
Our model gives 1 · Red Bull New York a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Red Bull New York win 48 %, draw 26 %, Toronto FC win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Red Bull New York – Toronto FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.