New York City FC
LAFC
New York City FC – LAFC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 1.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards New York City FC at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.49 goals for New York City FC and 1.44 for LAFC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 34 %. Over their last five matches, New York City FC took 4 points and LAFC 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for New York City FC, 0 draws, 1 win for LAFC. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1New York City FC | 2.75 | 34 % | +7.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -10.9 % |
| 2LAFC | 2.35 | 39 % | -18.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
New York City FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
LAFC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- New York City FC
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- LAFC
- LAFC1-0New York City FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win New York City FC – LAFC?
Our model gives 1 · New York City FC a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: New York City FC win 39 %, draw 26 %, LAFC win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for New York City FC – LAFC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.