Minnesota United FC
St. Louis CITY SC
Minnesota United FC – St. Louis CITY SC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.48 – 1.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 65 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards St. Louis CITY SC away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.48 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.80 for St. Louis CITY SC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Minnesota United FC took 2 points and St. Louis CITY SC 13 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Minnesota United FC, 0 draws, 1 win for St. Louis CITY SC. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Minnesota United FC | 2.38 | 39 % | -22.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.77 | 25 % | +2.5 % |
| 2St. Louis CITY SC | 2.60 | 36 % | +4.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Minnesota United FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
St. Louis CITY SC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Minnesota United FC
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- St. Louis CITY SC
- St. Louis CITY SC4-2Minnesota United FC
- St. Louis CITY SC1-2Minnesota United FC
- Minnesota United FC3-0St. Louis CITY SC
- Minnesota United FC4-1St. Louis CITY SC
- St. Louis CITY SC1-3Minnesota United FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Minnesota United FC – St. Louis CITY SC?
Our model gives 2 · St. Louis CITY SC a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Minnesota United FC win 33 %, draw 27 %, St. Louis CITY SC win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for Minnesota United FC – St. Louis CITY SC?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.