Philadelphia Union
Charlotte FC
Philadelphia Union – Charlotte FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.59 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Philadelphia Union at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.59 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.09 for Charlotte FC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 63 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Philadelphia Union took 15 points and Charlotte FC 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Philadelphia Union, 1 draw, 3 wins for Charlotte FC. Over 2.5 goals: 71 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Philadelphia Union | 1.47 | 63 % | -3.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.85 | 19 % | +1.1 % |
| 2Charlotte FC | 5.25 | 18 % | -28.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Philadelphia Union
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Charlotte FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Philadelphia Union
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Charlotte FC
- Charlotte FC2-1Philadelphia Union
- Charlotte FC2-0Philadelphia Union
- Philadelphia Union2-1Charlotte FC
- Philadelphia Union0-2Charlotte FC
- Charlotte FC0-0Philadelphia Union
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Philadelphia Union – Charlotte FC?
Our model gives 1 · Philadelphia Union a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Philadelphia Union win 66 %, draw 21 %, Charlotte FC win 14 %.
What is the most likely score for Philadelphia Union – Charlotte FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.