Central Coast Mariners
Newcastle Jets
Central Coast Mariners – Newcastle Jets
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 1.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Newcastle Jets away from home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.22 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 1.98 for Newcastle Jets. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 54 %. Over their last five matches, Central Coast Mariners took 5 points and Newcastle Jets 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Central Coast Mariners, 2 draws, 2 wins for Newcastle Jets. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Central Coast Mariners | 3.75 | 25 % | -2.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 22 % | +12.5 % |
| 2Newcastle Jets | 1.74 | 54 % | -16.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Central Coast Mariners
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Newcastle Jets
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Central Coast Mariners
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Newcastle Jets
- Newcastle Jets4-0Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners0-0Newcastle Jets
- Central Coast Mariners3-2Newcastle Jets
- Newcastle Jets6-0Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners2-2Newcastle Jets
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Central Coast Mariners – Newcastle Jets?
Our model gives 2 · Newcastle Jets a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Central Coast Mariners win 26 %, draw 26 %, Newcastle Jets win 48 %.
What is the most likely score for Central Coast Mariners – Newcastle Jets?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.