Auckland FC
Melbourne City FC
Auckland FC – Melbourne City FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.62 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Auckland FC at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.62 goals for Auckland FC and 1.19 for Melbourne City FC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 38 %. Over their last five matches, Auckland FC took 9 points and Melbourne City FC 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Auckland FC, 2 draws, 1 win for Melbourne City FC. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Auckland FC | 2.45 | 38 % | +17.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -18.0 % |
| 2Melbourne City FC | 2.85 | 33 % | -23.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Auckland FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Melbourne City FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Auckland FC
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Melbourne City FC
- Auckland FC1-1Melbourne City FC
- Auckland FC3-0Melbourne City FC
- Melbourne City FC2-1Auckland FC
- Auckland FC3-0Melbourne City FC
- Melbourne City FC2-2Auckland FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Auckland FC – Melbourne City FC?
Our model gives 1 · Auckland FC a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Auckland FC win 48 %, draw 25 %, Melbourne City FC win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Auckland FC – Melbourne City FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.