Atalanta
Pafos
Atalanta – Pafos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.82 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Atalanta 3-1 Pafos. The model predicted a win for Atalanta (64 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.82 goals for Atalanta and 0.86 for Pafos. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 70 %. Over their last five matches, Atalanta took 6 points and Pafos 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atalanta | 1.36 | 70 % | -13.0 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | -3.8 % |
| 2Pafos | 8.00 | 12 % | +41.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atalanta
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Pafos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Atalanta – Pafos?
Final score: Atalanta 3-1 Pafos. The model predicted a win for Atalanta (64 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Atalanta – Pafos?
Our model gives 1 · Atalanta a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atalanta win 64 %, draw 18 %, Pafos win 18 %.