KAA Gent
AGF
KAA Gent – AGF
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.63 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards KAA Gent at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.63 goals for KAA Gent and 1.12 for AGF. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, KAA Gent took 13 points and AGF 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1KAA Gent | 1.60 | 60 % | -18.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 22 % | +1.0 % |
| 2AGF | 5.25 | 18 % | +34.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
KAA Gent
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AGF
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win KAA Gent – AGF?
Our model gives 1 · KAA Gent a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: KAA Gent win 51 %, draw 23 %, AGF win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for KAA Gent – AGF?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.