FC Lugano
Red Star Belgrade
FC Lugano – Red Star Belgrade
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: FC Lugano 3-2 Red Star Belgrade. The model predicted a win for FC Lugano (47 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.50 goals for FC Lugano and 1.08 for Red Star Belgrade. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. Over their last five matches, FC Lugano took 11 points and Red Star Belgrade 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Lugano | 2.65 | 36 % | +25.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 26 % | -10.2 % |
| 2Red Star Belgrade | 2.50 | 38 % | -29.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Lugano
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Red Star Belgrade
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of FC Lugano – Red Star Belgrade?
Final score: FC Lugano 3-2 Red Star Belgrade. The model predicted a win for FC Lugano (47 %): correct prediction.
Who will win FC Lugano – Red Star Belgrade?
Our model gives 1 · FC Lugano a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Lugano win 47 %, draw 24 %, Red Star Belgrade win 28 %.