CSKA Sofia
AS Monaco
CSKA Sofia – AS Monaco
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 0-212 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.78 – 2.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AS Monaco away from home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.78 goals for CSKA Sofia and 2.09 for AS Monaco. Bookmakers say the same thing: 64 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, CSKA Sofia took 4 points and AS Monaco 11 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1CSKA Sofia | 6.00 | 16 % | -20.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.70 | 20 % | +3.2 % |
| 2AS Monaco | 1.50 | 64 % | -2.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
CSKA Sofia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AS Monaco
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win CSKA Sofia – AS Monaco?
Our model gives 2 · AS Monaco a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: CSKA Sofia win 13 %, draw 22 %, AS Monaco win 65 %.
What is the most likely score for CSKA Sofia – AS Monaco?
The most likely score is 0-2, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.