LAFC
Austin FC
LAFC – Austin FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 13, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 61 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.99 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards LAFC at home (61 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.99 goals for LAFC and 1.05 for Austin FC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 65 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, LAFC took 5 points and Austin FC 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for LAFC, 1 draw, 2 wins for Austin FC. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1LAFC | 1.43 | 65 % | -12.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.60 | 20 % | -1.4 % |
| 2Austin FC | 6.00 | 15 % | +4.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
LAFC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Austin FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- LAFC
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Austin FC
- Austin FC0-0LAFC
- Austin FC1-4LAFC
- LAFC2-1Austin FC
- Austin FC1-0LAFC
- LAFC0-1Austin FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win LAFC – Austin FC?
Our model gives 1 · LAFC a 61 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: LAFC win 61 %, draw 21 %, Austin FC win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for LAFC – Austin FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.