Inter Miami CF
New York City FC
Inter Miami CF – New York City FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 13, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.21 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Inter Miami CF at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.21 goals for Inter Miami CF and 1.21 for New York City FC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 62 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Inter Miami CF took 6 points and New York City FC 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Inter Miami CF, 2 draws, 0 wins for New York City FC. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Inter Miami CF | 1.48 | 62 % | -15.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.80 | 19 % | +8.1 % |
| 2New York City FC | 5.00 | 18 % | +0.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Inter Miami CF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
New York City FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Inter Miami CF
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- New York City FC
- New York City FC2-3Inter Miami CF
- Inter Miami CF5-1New York City FC
- New York City FC0-4Inter Miami CF
- Inter Miami CF2-2New York City FC
- New York City FC1-1Inter Miami CF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Inter Miami CF – New York City FC?
Our model gives 1 · Inter Miami CF a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Inter Miami CF win 57 %, draw 23 %, New York City FC win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Inter Miami CF – New York City FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.