St. Louis CITY SC
LA Galaxy
St. Louis CITY SC – LA Galaxy
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.01 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards St. Louis CITY SC at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.01 goals for St. Louis CITY SC and 1.11 for LA Galaxy. Bookmakers say the same thing: 61 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, St. Louis CITY SC took 13 points and LA Galaxy 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for St. Louis CITY SC, 2 draws, 0 wins for LA Galaxy. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Louis CITY SC | 1.52 | 61 % | -14.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.70 | 20 % | +12.4 % |
| 2LA Galaxy | 4.80 | 19 % | -4.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
St. Louis CITY SC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
LA Galaxy
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- St. Louis CITY SC
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- LA Galaxy
- LA Galaxy1-3St. Louis CITY SC
- St. Louis CITY SC3-3LA Galaxy
- LA Galaxy0-3St. Louis CITY SC
- St. Louis CITY SC2-1LA Galaxy
- LA Galaxy3-3St. Louis CITY SC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win St. Louis CITY SC – LA Galaxy?
Our model gives 1 · St. Louis CITY SC a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: St. Louis CITY SC win 56 %, draw 24 %, LA Galaxy win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for St. Louis CITY SC – LA Galaxy?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.