LAFC
Vancouver Whitecaps
LAFC – Vancouver Whitecaps
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 1.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Vancouver Whitecaps away from home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.52 goals for LAFC and 1.69 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. Over their last five matches, LAFC took 5 points and Vancouver Whitecaps 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for LAFC, 3 draws, 1 win for Vancouver Whitecaps. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1LAFC | 2.40 | 38 % | -18.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -10.3 % |
| 2Vancouver Whitecaps | 2.60 | 36 % | +5.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
LAFC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vancouver Whitecaps
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- LAFC
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Vancouver Whitecaps
- Vancouver Whitecaps1-1LAFC
- Vancouver Whitecaps2-2LAFC
- LAFC0-1Vancouver Whitecaps
- Vancouver Whitecaps2-2LAFC
- LAFC1-0Vancouver Whitecaps
Frequently asked questions
Who will win LAFC – Vancouver Whitecaps?
Our model gives 2 · Vancouver Whitecaps a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: LAFC win 34 %, draw 25 %, Vancouver Whitecaps win 41 %.
What is the most likely score for LAFC – Vancouver Whitecaps?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.