Minnesota United FC
Houston Dynamo FC
Minnesota United FC – Houston Dynamo FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.48 – 1.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Minnesota United FC at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.48 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.42 for Houston Dynamo FC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Minnesota United FC took no points and Houston Dynamo FC 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Minnesota United FC, 1 draw, 2 wins for Houston Dynamo FC. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Minnesota United FC | 2.05 | 45 % | -23.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | +2.4 % |
| 2Houston Dynamo FC | 3.30 | 28 % | +10.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Minnesota United FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Houston Dynamo FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Minnesota United FC
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Houston Dynamo FC
- Minnesota United FC3-1Houston Dynamo FC
- Houston Dynamo FC2-0Minnesota United FC
- Houston Dynamo FC1-1Minnesota United FC
- Minnesota United FC1-2Houston Dynamo FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Minnesota United FC – Houston Dynamo FC?
Our model gives 1 · Minnesota United FC a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Minnesota United FC win 37 %, draw 29 %, Houston Dynamo FC win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for Minnesota United FC – Houston Dynamo FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.