Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake
Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.38 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Philadelphia Union at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.38 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.06 for Real Salt Lake. Bookmakers say the same thing: 66 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Philadelphia Union took 15 points and Real Salt Lake 3 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Philadelphia Union, 0 draws, 1 win for Real Salt Lake. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Philadelphia Union | 1.40 | 66 % | -8.0 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 18 % | +4.9 % |
| 2Real Salt Lake | 5.75 | 16 % | -23.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Philadelphia Union
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Salt Lake
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Philadelphia Union
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Real Salt Lake
- Philadelphia Union1-2Real Salt Lake
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake?
Our model gives 1 · Philadelphia Union a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Philadelphia Union win 66 %, draw 21 %, Real Salt Lake win 13 %.
What is the most likely score for Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.