Chicago Fire FC
New York City FC
Chicago Fire FC – New York City FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.81 – 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Chicago Fire FC at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.81 goals for Chicago Fire FC and 1.22 for New York City FC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 53 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Chicago Fire FC took 7 points and New York City FC 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Chicago Fire FC, 2 draws, 3 wins for New York City FC. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chicago Fire FC | 1.78 | 53 % | -10.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 24 % | -2.7 % |
| 2New York City FC | 4.03 | 23 % | -0.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Chicago Fire FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
New York City FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Chicago Fire FC
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- New York City FC
- New York City FC3-1Chicago Fire FC
- Chicago Fire FC1-3New York City FC
- New York City FC3-1Chicago Fire FC
- New York City FC2-2Chicago Fire FC
- Chicago Fire FC0-0New York City FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chicago Fire FC – New York City FC?
Our model gives 1 · Chicago Fire FC a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Chicago Fire FC win 50 %, draw 25 %, New York City FC win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Chicago Fire FC – New York City FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.