Toronto FC
CF Montréal
Toronto FC – CF Montréal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.77 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Toronto FC at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.77 goals for Toronto FC and 1.19 for CF Montréal. Bookmakers say the same thing: 49 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Toronto FC took 4 points and CF Montréal 3 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Toronto FC, 2 draws, 0 wins for CF Montréal. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toronto FC | 1.91 | 49 % | -7.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.83 | 24 % | +3.7 % |
| 2CF Montréal | 3.50 | 27 % | -15.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Toronto FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
CF Montréal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Toronto FC
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- CF Montréal
- CF Montréal0-0Toronto FC
- Toronto FC1-1CF Montréal
- CF Montréal1-6Toronto FC
- CF Montréal0-1Toronto FC
- Toronto FC5-1CF Montréal
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Toronto FC – CF Montréal?
Our model gives 1 · Toronto FC a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Toronto FC win 49 %, draw 27 %, CF Montréal win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Toronto FC – CF Montréal?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.