Chicago Fire FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
Chicago Fire FC – Vancouver Whitecaps
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 5, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.42 – 1.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Vancouver Whitecaps away from home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.42 goals for Chicago Fire FC and 1.78 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Chicago Fire FC took 5 points and Vancouver Whitecaps 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Chicago Fire FC, 0 draws, 0 wins for Vancouver Whitecaps. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chicago Fire FC | 2.65 | 35 % | -24.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 24 % | +0.1 % |
| 2Vancouver Whitecaps | 2.25 | 41 % | +1.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Chicago Fire FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vancouver Whitecaps
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Chicago Fire FC
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Vancouver Whitecaps
- Vancouver Whitecaps1-3Chicago Fire FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chicago Fire FC – Vancouver Whitecaps?
Our model gives 2 · Vancouver Whitecaps a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Chicago Fire FC win 29 %, draw 26 %, Vancouver Whitecaps win 45 %.
What is the most likely score for Chicago Fire FC – Vancouver Whitecaps?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.