Fortaleza
Náutico
Fortaleza – Náutico
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 1, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 0.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Fortaleza at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.59 goals for Fortaleza and 0.91 for Náutico. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fortaleza took 11 points and Náutico 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Fortaleza, 0 draws, 0 wins for Náutico. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortaleza | 1.80 | 52 % | -1.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -13.3 % |
| 2Náutico | 4.40 | 21 % | -11.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Fortaleza
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Náutico
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Fortaleza
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Náutico
- Náutico0-1Fortaleza
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fortaleza – Náutico?
Our model gives 1 · Fortaleza a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fortaleza win 55 %, draw 25 %, Náutico win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Fortaleza – Náutico?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.