Independiente Rivadavia
Gimnasia La Plata
Independiente Rivadavia – Gimnasia La Plata
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 1, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.56 – 0.90
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Independiente Rivadavia at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.56 goals for Independiente Rivadavia and 0.90 for Gimnasia La Plata. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Independiente Rivadavia took 10 points and Gimnasia La Plata 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Independiente Rivadavia, 0 draws, 0 wins for Gimnasia La Plata. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente Rivadavia | 1.83 | 51 % | +1.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -6.4 % |
| 2Gimnasia La Plata | 4.10 | 23 % | -25.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Independiente Rivadavia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Gimnasia La Plata
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Independiente Rivadavia
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Gimnasia La Plata
- Gimnasia La Plata2-3Independiente Rivadavia
- Independiente Rivadavia1-0Gimnasia La Plata
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Independiente Rivadavia – Gimnasia La Plata?
Our model gives 1 · Independiente Rivadavia a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Independiente Rivadavia win 56 %, draw 26 %, Gimnasia La Plata win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for Independiente Rivadavia – Gimnasia La Plata?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.