Boca Juniors
Unión (Santa Fe)
Boca Juniors – Unión (Santa Fe)
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 1, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.90 – 0.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Boca Juniors at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.90 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.77 for Unión (Santa Fe). Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Boca Juniors took 11 points and Unión (Santa Fe) 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Boca Juniors, 3 draws, 0 wins for Unión (Santa Fe). Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Boca Juniors | 1.57 | 59 % | +4.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | -19.1 % |
| 2Unión (Santa Fe) | 5.75 | 16 % | -26.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Boca Juniors
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Unión (Santa Fe)
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Boca Juniors
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- Unión (Santa Fe)
- Unión (Santa Fe)1-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors1-1Unión (Santa Fe)
- Unión (Santa Fe)1-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors1-0Unión (Santa Fe)
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Boca Juniors – Unión (Santa Fe)?
Our model gives 1 · Boca Juniors a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Boca Juniors win 66 %, draw 21 %, Unión (Santa Fe) win 13 %.
What is the most likely score for Boca Juniors – Unión (Santa Fe)?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.