São Paulo
Santos
São Paulo – Santos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 1, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards São Paulo at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for São Paulo and 1.03 for Santos. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, São Paulo took 7 points and Santos 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for São Paulo, 2 draws, 1 win for Santos. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1São Paulo | 2.05 | 46 % | -5.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -5.5 % |
| 2Santos | 3.55 | 26 % | -9.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
São Paulo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Santos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- São Paulo
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Santos
- Santos1-1São Paulo
- Santos1-0São Paulo
- São Paulo2-1Santos
- Santos0-0São Paulo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win São Paulo – Santos?
Our model gives 1 · São Paulo a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: São Paulo win 46 %, draw 28 %, Santos win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for São Paulo – Santos?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.