Independiente
Instituto (Córdoba)
Independiente – Instituto (Córdoba)
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 1, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.32 – 0.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39 %
- Both teams to score
- 44 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Independiente at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.32 goals for Independiente and 0.91 for Instituto (Córdoba). Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 41 %. Over their last five matches, Independiente took 8 points and Instituto (Córdoba) 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Independiente, 1 draw, 2 wins for Instituto (Córdoba). Over 2.5 goals: 39 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente | 2.30 | 41 % | +11.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 31 % | -16.5 % |
| 2Instituto (Córdoba) | 3.25 | 29 % | -21.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Independiente
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Instituto (Córdoba)
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Independiente
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Instituto (Córdoba)
- Instituto (Córdoba)2-1Independiente
- Instituto (Córdoba)0-0Independiente
- Independiente2-0Instituto (Córdoba)
- Instituto (Córdoba)3-1Independiente
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Independiente – Instituto (Córdoba)?
Our model gives 1 · Independiente a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Independiente win 48 %, draw 27 %, Instituto (Córdoba) win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Independiente – Instituto (Córdoba)?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.