Ukraine
Northern Ireland
Ukraine – Northern Ireland
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Oct 1, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ukraine at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for Ukraine and 1.03 for Northern Ireland. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ukraine took 10 points and Northern Ireland 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ukraine | 1.83 | 50 % | -11.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -18.2 % |
| 2Northern Ireland | 4.20 | 22 % | +11.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Ukraine
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Northern Ireland
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ukraine – Northern Ireland?
Our model gives 1 · Ukraine a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ukraine win 49 %, draw 25 %, Northern Ireland win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Ukraine – Northern Ireland?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.