France
Italy
France – Italy
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Oct 1, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.21 – 0.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards France at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.21 goals for France and 0.97 for Italy. Bookmakers say the same thing: 66 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, France took 9 points and Italy 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for France, 0 draws, 1 win for Italy. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1France | 1.40 | 66 % | -7.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.80 | 19 % | -13.7 % |
| 2Italy | 6.00 | 15 % | -2.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
France
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Italy
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- France
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Italy
- Italy1-3France
- France1-3Italy
Frequently asked questions
Who will win France – Italy?
Our model gives 1 · France a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: France win 66 %, draw 18 %, Italy win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for France – Italy?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.