Eldense
Real Oviedo
Eldense – Real Oviedo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Oct 1, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 35 %
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.10 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Oviedo away from home (35 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.10 goals for Eldense and 1.21 for Real Oviedo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Eldense took 4 points and Real Oviedo 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Eldense, 3 draws, 1 win for Real Oviedo. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Eldense | 2.65 | 35 % | -13.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -1.2 % |
| 2Real Oviedo | 2.70 | 35 % | -4.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Eldense
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Oviedo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Eldense
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Real Oviedo
- Real Oviedo0-0Eldense
- Eldense1-1Real Oviedo
- Real Oviedo1-1Eldense
- Eldense1-3Real Oviedo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Eldense – Real Oviedo?
Our model gives 2 · Real Oviedo a 35 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Eldense win 33 %, draw 32 %, Real Oviedo win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Eldense – Real Oviedo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.