Dominican Republic
Haiti
Dominican Republic – Haiti
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 30, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.89 – 1.38
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Dominican Republic at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.89 goals for Dominican Republic and 1.38 for Haiti. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.85, the predicted outcome carries +46.4 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Dominican Republic took 8 points and Haiti 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dominican Republic | 2.85 | 32 % | +46.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 27 % | -35.9 % |
| 2Haiti | 2.20 |
Form and statistics
Dominican Republic
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Haiti
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Dominican Republic – Haiti?
Our model gives 1 · Dominican Republic a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Dominican Republic win 51 %, draw 19 %, Haiti win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Dominican Republic – Haiti?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.