Novorizontino
Goiás
Novorizontino – Goiás
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 30, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 61 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.81 – 0.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Novorizontino at home (61 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.81 goals for Novorizontino and 0.89 for Goiás. Bookmakers say the same thing: 57 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Novorizontino took 8 points and Goiás 6 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Novorizontino, 0 draws, 2 wins for Goiás. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Novorizontino | 1.62 | 57 % | -0.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -19.8 % |
| 2Goiás | 5.50 | 17 % | -9.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Novorizontino
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Goiás
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Novorizontino
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Goiás
- Goiás0-4Novorizontino
- Goiás1-0Novorizontino
- Novorizontino1-0Goiás
- Goiás1-0Novorizontino
- Novorizontino2-1Goiás
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Novorizontino – Goiás?
Our model gives 1 · Novorizontino a 61 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Novorizontino win 61 %, draw 22 %, Goiás win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for Novorizontino – Goiás?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.