Wales
Norway
Wales – Norway
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 30, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.10 – 1.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Norway away from home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.10 goals for Wales and 1.66 for Norway. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 63 %. Over their last five matches, Wales took 2 points and Norway 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wales | 5.50 | 17 % | +39.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 20 % | -3.7 % |
| 2Norway | 1.47 | 63 % | -21.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Wales
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Norway
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Wales – Norway?
Our model gives 2 · Norway a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Wales win 25 %, draw 21 %, Norway win 53 %.
What is the most likely score for Wales – Norway?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.